Contract Expiries May Force Toronto Mayor’s Hand

To date, Rob Ford’s tactics are mimicking Mike Harris and Gordon Campbell.

by Gordon Sova (gordon.sova@thomsonreuters.com)

This morning’s Toronto Star has an op-ed cartoon of Mayor Rob Ford as the new sheriff in the western town.  He is drinking shots from a jug called “honeymoon”.  Through the saloon window, the reader can see an approaching armed gang labeled “unions”.

So far, Ford has been working from the Mike Harris–Gordon Campbell playbook: act quickly and decisively, don’t bother with consultation and don’t give the opposition time to organize.  However, Ford’s latitude to work this way is much more restricted than a provincial premier’s.

For example, he has just “killed” the metro public transportation plan that was developed by Toronto, the GTA municipalities and the provincial government.  He plans to ask the same government to declare the Toronto Transit Commission an essential service.  Queen’s Park, which has been polite to date, may not be in a hurry to go out on a limb for him by making just one public transit system in the province essential.  Especially after he has embarrassed them and left them holding the bag for a number of supplier contracts that may have to be broken.

Then, Ford intends to contract out garbage collection.  In that, he will certainly have a battle on his hands, one that will unite all his enemies.  The fight will not be short and sharp.  If he intends to initiate that quickly, it will also fall during the preparation of the 2011 budget, which Ford has begun early.

This could get very messy.  And ending the “gravy train” might not generate the massive tax savings Ford has been trumpeting.

He has been treating his 47% plurality as a decisive referendum to act as he wishes.  Union opposition is unlikely to eat far into his base of support, but a failure to find enough fat in the budget to allow him to cut property taxes definitely will.

The contract between the TTC and the Amalgamated Transit Union expires in three months; those with CUPE for inside and outside workers at the end of 2011.  The dilemma facing Ford is whether to continue the Harris-Campbell strategy and take on the unions now (while also balancing the budget) or to face his challenges one at a time.  The latter might be a wiser option, allowing him to rebuild through union-bashing what he will probably lose in support through failing to slash the city budget without service cuts.  But the timing of the expiries may not give him a choice.